Industries in Motion RBC Capital Markets

2023 was a good year for UK banks, however the outlook for 2024 is more uncertain. In todays podcast we discus some of the key trends which we expect to materialise for UK banks through this year, with a particular focus on the structural hedge.

In this episode, Greg Pardy (Head of Global Energy Research, Canadian Senior E&P & Integrated Oil Analyst), Scott Hanold (Managing Director, US E&P Analyst) and Biraj Borkhataria (Head of Global Energy Transition Research, Euro & US Integrated Oil Analyst) join Graeme Pearson (Co-Head of Global Research) to discuss themes in M&A and capital allocation amongst global energy producers.
M&A activity amongst energy producers is always a wildcard, but the recent tidal wave of consolidation activity unfolding in the United States is like a fever that has yet to run its course. Fortified balance sheets are the strongest we’ve seen in over a decade, with net debt at the end of 2023 about one-half that seen in 2020 during the pandemic, as energy producers globally have embraced a new model fusing financial resiliency with shareholder returns. This has also opened the door to intensified M&A activity via increased funding capacity.
US deals appear aimed at achieving quality scale, a lower cost of capital, overhead cost savings, and bolstering resource depth or enhancing portfolio diversification. The European majors could be buyers of US natural gas resources to rebalance LNG commitments. The next inflection point in this chapter could also involve M&A in Canada’s Montney play.

In this episode, Maurice Choy (Canadian Energy Infrastructure Analyst), Andrew Wong (Uranium & Fertilizers Analyst), Sara Mahaffy (ESG Strategist) and Robert Kwan (Head of Global Power, Utilities & Infrastructure Research) at RBC Capital Markets discuss our outlook for long-term growth in the nuclear energy industry, the path forward to address previous challenges, the political and regulatory landscape, ESG perspectives, and the outlook and exposure to nuclear energy across regions and sectors.
We have taken a global and cross-sector approach in reviewing the nuclear energy value chain in collaboration with our global team of Energy Infrastructure, Industrials, Mining & Materials and ESG analysts and strategists. We believe that nuclear energy generation capacity is well-positioned to grow in North America and Europe over the long term, supporting countries' energy transition objectives by being a source of reliable and non-emitting baseload power for decades as well as being an industry that countries can develop to deliver stronger economic growth. The vast challenge to deliver net zero by 2050 suggests to us that an “all of the above” approach must be taken, and that will not only benefit renewables (e.g., wind, solar, hydro) and carbon abatement technologies (e.g., CCUS, hydrogen), but also nuclear energy. We sense that certain countries are progressively valuing the benefits of nuclear energy and are justifiably giving support to the technology, ultimately leading to this industry becoming increasingly ESG-friendly and investable over the long run.

In this episode of the Industries in Motion podcast we are joined by members of our Global Banks team, with Gerard Cassidy and Jon Arfstrom from the US, Anke Reingen and Benjamin Toms from the UK, and Darko Mihelic from Canada, to discuss the key themes and risks they feel will be most relevant to their regions in 2024. On the back of an eventful year for US banking, Gerard and Jon have a broadly bullish tilt, supported by their view that the terminal rate for Federal Funds will be reached and that the U.S. economy will experience a soft landing. In the EU, Anke does not expect that higher interest rates will be the tailwind that we saw in 2023, with valuations and returns more likely to be in focus. In the UK, while slower UK growth is a risk, Ben believes the macro-economic environment will be supportive for higher UK bank valuations in 2024 (although not to the same extent as in the EU).

The electric vehicle charging network in the U.S. has a long road to travel between now and 2030, according to RBC clean energy analyst, Chris Dendrinos. In the latest episode of Industries in Motion, Dendrinos outlined the sometimes-surprising findings of his detailed primer on the future of EV charging infrastructure.

In this episode of the Industries in Motion podcast, Victoria McCulloch (Energy Services Analyst) discusses with Peter Dawkins (European Research Product Manager), the growth in carbon capture in Europe and the US. We discuss the pace of adoption as well as the dominant technologies and fiscal policies which are helping accelerate carbon capture in Europe and the US. We see carbon capture for utilisation and storage as a vital decarbonisation technology which many governments are expected to deploy to meet their net zero targets, as discussed in our recent research notes.